Is Rajiv Ghai the Successor to Ajit Doval?

India Set for a New Face

Reports indicate that Lt. Gen. Rajiv Ghai may succeed National Security Advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval, who is experiencing age-related health issues.

Lt. Gen. Ghai’s presence in recent diplomatic engagements with various countries, including border dispute resolution talks, has added momentum to these speculations. He is also a senior military officer who shares a close rapport with Ajit Doval; several strategic initiatives planned by Doval were executed on the ground under Ghai's leadership.

In the past, former diplomats with experience in the Ministry of External Affairs were typically appointed as National Security Advisors to Prime Ministers. However, the Modi government appointed Ajit Doval, a seasoned intelligence officer, as the NSA. Consequently, the influence of intelligence agencies on India's foreign and security policies expanded significantly.

Lt. Gen. Rajiv Ghai currently serves as the Deputy Chief of Army Staff (Strategy) with additional charge of Military Adviser to the National Security Council Secretariat.He also served as the Director General of Military Operations (DGMO) during Operation Sindoor.

The approach popularized by Ajit Doval—analyzing intelligence inputs to execute calculated retaliatory actions—came to be known in diplomatic and security circles as the "Doval Doctrine." Speculation surrounding his successor suggests that India's foreign and defense policy may now shift further toward direct military involvement.

Experts assess that appointing a military commander directly as NSA after Doval could reshape India’s diplomatic posture, tilting conflict resolution heavily toward decisive military responses. Analysts view this as a potential shift toward an Israeli-style defense policy centered on immediate, retaliatory counterstrikes. When career diplomats served as NSAs, international disputes were predominantly handled through diplomatic channels; under Doval, however, the emphasis shifted to cross-border surgical actions.

This operational shift was evident during the cross-border surgical strikes, the Balakot airstrikes, and Operation Sindoor. Global observers have also linked Doval to targeted operations by "unknown gunmen" against high-profile anti-India terrorists living under tight security abroad. More than 30 such terrorists have been eliminated in strikes by unidentified operatives since 2020. In Operation Black Thunder (1988), Doval famously disguised himself as a rickshaw puller and an ISI agent to infiltrate the Golden Temple complex, gathering critical intelligence for the armed forces. The Uttarakhand-native operative also spent years living undercover on the streets of Lahore gathering intelligence.

Courtesy...mangalam daily,English translation